Thursday, June 15, 2006

As Summer approaches reality begins to set in for the Democrats

Somehow I knew you could use a good laugh. I guess it would be more accurate to say reality is descending on them, but there isn't a chance in ten they will notice.

On the face Busby’s loss seems like a great improvement, a “moral victory” if you will, over her last general election. Her 45 percent was a marked increase from her 2004 showing of 37 percent. But in 2004 she was facing an entrenched, 7th term incumbent. Then, the Republican base was energized and the GOP picked up seats in the Senate and the House, and President Bush shattered the record for the number of votes received by a Presidential candidate. The opposite is expected this year.

In reality Busby’s loss was a dismal failure and shows the major uphill battle that the Democrats have just to save face in November. Figure everything that Busby had going for her:

I first laid out the sequence here and so far everything is right on schedule. At this point I would say that both chambers of Congress will remain in Republican control with about a 3 seat +/- change in the House and a net loss of one seat for the Republicans in the Senate. Of course if the Democrats ever lay out their plan this could become a Republican landslide.

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